Sustainability | Free Full-Text | Development of a Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System to Assist with Decision-Making for Floods during Typhoons


Hydrological ensemble prediction methods (HEPSs) can present choice makers with early warning data, resembling peak stage and peak time, with sufficient lead time to take the mandatory measures to mitigate disasters. This research develops a HEPS that integrates meteorological, hydrological, storm surge, and world tidal fashions. It’s established to grasp details about the uncertainty of numerical climate predictions after which to offer probabilistic flood forecasts as a substitute of generally adopted deterministic forecasts. The accuracy of flood forecasting is elevated. Nonetheless, the spatiotemporal uncertainty related to these numerical fashions within the HEPS and the problem in decoding the mannequin outcomes hinder efficient decision-making throughout emergency response conditions. Consequently, the effectivity of decision-making will not be at all times elevated. Thus, this research additionally presents a visualization technique to interpret the ensemble outcomes to boost the understanding of probabilistic runoff forecasts for operational functions. A small watershed with space of 100 km2 and 4 historic hurricane occasions have been chosen to guage the efficiency of the strategy. The outcomes confirmed that the proposed HEPS together with the visualization method improved the intelligibility of forecasts of the height phases and peak occasions in comparison with that of approaches beforehand described within the literature. The seize fee is bigger than 50%, which is taken into account sensible for choice makers. The proposed HEPS with the visualization technique has potential for each lowering the uncertainty of numerical rainfall forecasts and enhancing the effectivity of decision-making for flood forecasts.
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